Our weekly newsletter, analysing global stories from an Indian lens
In Focus
China weighing options over CKH-Black Rock Panama Canal Deal
A deal for Black Rock-led investors to acquire Hong-Kong based CK Hutchison’s port assets at both ends of the Panama Canal will be a major setback for China and its global ports empire, if it proceeds. The sale is part of a wider USD 23 billion deal that will transfers control of 43 ports across 23 countries to the U.S.-Swiss consortium, excluding CK Hutchison’s assets in China. A commentary reposted by China's Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office condemned the move as “spineless groveling” and “an act of U.S. hegemony,” warning it could undermine China’s Belt and Road Initiative by severing critical maritime trade routes. While the deal is set to close by April 2, China has launched antitrust and national security probes, leveraging agencies like the State Administration for Market Regulation to pressure CK Hutchison. China is also instructing state firms to stop business with Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing and his family, the owner of CK Hutchison. China might also pressure governments such as Pakistan and Myanmar to stall the deal’s approval process. As of today, a South China Morning Post report suggests that CK Hutchison might not sign the deal next week amid growing pressure from Beijing.
The deal could nearly halve China’s global port network, limiting its backdoor access to regions of strategic interest to India, including in the Arabian Sea and the wider Indian Ocean.
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Black Sea Ceasefire Deal
Russia and Ukraine have agreed to separate U.S.-brokered deals for a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, a significant development aimed at reducing hostilities in this vital trade corridor linking Europe and Asia. The ceasefire, announced on March 25, ensures safe navigation and prohibits the use of commercial vessels for military purposes. This agreement comes amid severe disruptions in trade dynamics due to the ongoing conflict, with Russian exports to the EU plummeting by 62% due to sanctions and Ukrainian grain exports falling sharply, impacting key partners like Egypt and Lebanon.
For India, which became the second-largest consumer of Russian fossil fuels following EU sanctions in 2022, the implications are significant. As ceasefire talks continued to stall in the previous week, uncertainty over shipments and supply concerns led to an average oil price increase of USD 0.70 per barrel in India. While the ceasefire may stabilize trade routes and potentially lower oil prices, any easing of EU/US sanctions on Russian oil could increase demand, tightening supply and raising costs for India.
Anti-Hamas Protests
The largest anti-Hamas protests since the outbreak of the war have erupted in Beit Lahiya, Northern Gaza, with hundreds of demonstrators calling for an end to Hamas leadership. These unusually bold protests come as Israeli military actions intensify following the March 18 ceasefire collapse. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has announced plans for a major ground offensive in Gaza, which could lead to long-term occupation and the legitimization of "wildcat settlements" in Palestinian territories. Some Gulf monarchies might privately welcome these protests, and mediators could use it to increase pressure on Hamas over aid distribution and future governance frameworks. The prolongation of the war risks undermining India’s energy security and foreign exchange stability.
Bangladesh’s Yunus in China
Bangladesh’s Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus is on a four-day visit to China, which included a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping today, on March 28. The discussions focused on trade and infrastructure investments, alongside Yunus seeking reduced interest rates and waivers for Chinese loans. Dhaka aims to attract Chinese industries, including solar panels, electric vehicles, and high-tech electronics, to establish Bangladesh as a regional manufacturing hub. Bangladesh welcomed the participation of Chinese companies in the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project. In return, Yunus reaffirmed his country’s opposition to Taiwan independence. With ties with India and the US strained, Yunus’ first high-level bilateral visit is being watched closely in New Delhi.
