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Special Edition Spotlight: Decoding Week 1 of Trump 2.0
Day 1 Agenda: Quad Takes Center Stage for Rubio
In a clear signal of the new U.S. administration's priorities, newly confirmed Secretary of State Marco Rubio convened a meeting with his Quad counterparts just hours after the inauguration. A brief joint statement, released after the meeting, has a strong defence and security flavour, emphasising the need to defend “rule of law, democratic values, sovereignty, and territorial integrity”, and further security "in all domains including the maritime domain.”
India’s External Affairs Minister Jaishankar later emphasised that the Quad was revived in 2017, when the previous Trump Administration was in power, underscoring continuity in the partnership. Rubio’s first bilateral was with India where the two sides vowed to go “bigger,” “bolder” and “more ambitious” on business, mobility, education, technology, defense and security.
As India prepares to host the next Quad Leaders’ Summit, it is likely to balance this renewed focus on defense and security with the politically safer mission of advancing global public goods.
China-US Engagement Under the New Administration
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, considered a China hawk, on January 24. The U.S. readout emphasized that the Trump administration would steer the relationship in a way that prioritizes American interests and stressed on China’s coercive actions against Taiwan and in the South China Sea. Beijing’s readout struck a more positive tone, emphasizing the need for "big countries" to "act in a manner befitting their status." It added that the foreign affairs teams of both governments should follow the positive direction set by Presidents Xi and Trump during their phone call before the latter’s inauguration. The Chinese statement highlighted that, during this call, Rubio assured China that the United States does not support “Taiwan independence.”
President Trump has been sending calculated signals to Beijing that he holds the tariff leverage over China; he would “rather not” use it, though. His interest in taking control of Greenland and the Panama Canal is driven by the need to advance US interests against its strategic competitor, China. The announcement of Stargate, a mega AI project with a USD 500 billion investment target over four years, also appears to be a message for China as its cheap, open-source models shock the Silicon Valley.
Many observers, including those in India, interpret these early signals and mixed messaging as signs of a practical China approach. This approach seems focused on strengthening domestic capabilities while urging allies to do more in building their own defenses. Indo-Pacific partners such as Japan and India, while working with the new administration to bolster the China-focused Quad, appear to be cautiously calibrating ties with Beijing, guarding against predictable unpredictability.
Where You Sit Matters: Inaugural Ceremony
Seated in the first row— just ahead of his Australian and Japanese counterparts—External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar represented India at President Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, held at the US Capitol rotunda. Trump’s team used the limited seating to send clear signals: Big Tech leaders from X, Amazon, Meta, Apple, and Google sat prominently behind the Trump family, signaling their increasingly public alignment with some of President Trump's positions. TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew, seated ironically beside Director of National Intelligence nominee Tulsi Gabbard, was invited but positioned apart. Trump had been working to prevent a TikTok ban by shifting its ownership from China-based ByteDance to U.S. entities. Foreign heads of state, including libertarian, right-leaning allies like Italian PM Giorgia Meloni and Argentine President Javier Milei, attended for the first time. Chinese Vice President Han Zheng, the “number 8” in Beijing, represented President Xi, as President Trump delivered direct and veiled messages to China in his inaugural address. Indian observers view Jaishankar’s front-row presence, next to Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa, as indicative of where India features in the new administration’s strategic calculus, especially in its restrained, evolving approach to China.
